Offseason analysis: Atlanta Braves
January 30th, 2006
Additions: SS Edgar Renteria; RHPs Oscar Villarreal, Lance Cormier; LHP Mike Remlinger; C Todd Pratt
Losses: SS Rafael Furcal; C Johnny Estrada; IF Julio Franco; RHPs Dan Kolb, Jim Brower, Jay Powell, Kyle Farnsworth; OF Todd Hollandsworth
Analysis: I don’t see much of an upgrade here for a team that has won its division but failed to go deep into the playoffs for several years now.
Replacing Furcal with Renteria will be an upgrade if Renteria returns to the form he showed previously in the National League. Brian McCann’s emergence as catcher made Estrada expendable, and allowed the Braves to add a couple of satisfactory bullpen arms in Villarreal and Cormier. Still, I think Atlanta’s bullpen is in need of greater improvement, and the acquisition of a true closer would have been big. As it is, the Braves will most likely have to go with Chris Reitsma in that role this year, and his results as closer last year were mixed.
The greatest loss to the Braves, however, doesn’t show up in the player transactions. The departure of pitching coach Leo Mazzone to the Orioles is a huge loss and may have a greater impact on the team’s success than any of the roster moves.
Grade: C
Look for Chris Reitsma to bounce back from last year’s late-season injuries to do an adequate job as closer until Joey Devine matures a little more. In addition, John Schuerholtz is currently eight million dollars under budget on the payroll right now. I think you will see a significant addition to the team at some point. Those “Baby Braves” are a year older now, they will be improved over the team that went to the playoffs last year.
Maybe Gordon, but Smoltz and Chipper are also a year older — and those are two of the biggest cogs on the team. I deliberately haven’t made any predictions in my offseason analyses, because I’ll probably make such predictions closer to the start of the season — but right now, I don’t think this Braves team wins the division.
You could be right, Tim. Sports pundits have been saying your last sentence for the last 14 years. Sooner or later, someone is bound to get it right. Maybe a Braves/Cardinals NLCS?
I guess this is what happens when a fan of another team tries to understand and analyze the Braves. You see, I too am quite upset about Leo’s departure and was somewhat worried. But now, I can see through that, I trust our world famous GM. He’s always got something up his sleeve. I have a deep feeling that the only reason Schuerholz won’t be able to help the Braves win another division is that he is no longer around, he has retired. Until then: Don’t stop the ‘Chop!
On a side note (and a non-hardheaded one at that): Guess what I get to do next Tuesday? Nope, you’re wrong. Here, I’ll tell you: I know that the Bible says not to have idols and everything, but let me clarify. When I use the term ‘idol,’ I don’t mean someone I put before God. I just mean a hero-type.
Anyway, next Tuesday night, I am driving about an hour away to Jekyl Island, Georgia, to an event of which I have been invited. I will hear him speak and have dinner with him, my idol, John Smoltz. That’s right, I finally get to shake hands with my idol.
The only downside to it is, I hate to wear a tie, but this is a buisness attire event. (Hmmm.. I maybe should get my suit dry-cleaned…)
But, as you can tell, I am quite excited. In fact, I even ordered an authentic Smoltz jersey (man those things are expensive), I just hope it’ll get here on time. If not, I’ll be quite angry. Anyway, I’m going to try and get him to sign it for me.
It is kinda funny though, the man literally lives a mile away from me and frequently goes to this little Mexican resturaunt we have in town. What’s strange though, is that I’ve never seen or met him before. Maybe I’ll make a comment telling him where I live- who knows.
Oh, and I do apologize Tim, for this not being totally on topic. But, I just felt like telling someone. And, I think that you have met Smoltz before from either Tim Cash telling me or you saying so. I could be wrong however. Anyway, if you have met him, you might not see what the big deal is, but hey, the guy isn’t your hero, now is he?
Yeah, the Braves have been proving prognosticators wrong for a long time. But as I pointed out above, there’s one difference this year — no Mazzone. If I were a Braves fan, I’d be more concerned this year than I’ve been in a while.
OK Scott, where’s my analysis wrong? And even Schuerholz, as great as he is, has his hands tied by owners who don’t want to open the wallet.
I’m not discounting the genius of Leo Mazzone. But perhaps the change will be good. Scuttlebutt from the Braves clubhouse last year indicated that some of the younger pitchers were having trouble connecting with Leo. Smoltz was having more influence on them than he was. I think with the presence of Smoltz, Roger McDowell will do an adequate job and will improve with the staff. At any rate, if he sits on the bench like Leo did we can start calling him “Rockin’ Roger”.
Scott, I am jealous.
Oh, and Scott — I have met Smoltz and talked to him a couple of times. Really good guy. I’m glad you have such an opportunity. Let me know how it goes and I might even create a special entry for you to talk about it.
I never said your analysis was wrong- just a little off track, in my opinion.
I agree, Leo leaving is a huge blow to the Braves. But, I have a good feeling about our new pitching coach, Roger McDowell. Also, we’ve still got Bobby. You can’t forget him. Then there’s our scouting department, and we all know how good they are, especially after this past year. Oh, I forgot, the players. True, for the veterans, it’s another year on the tally, they are getting older. Let’s focus on Chipper and Smoltz for a moment, after all, they are “the biggest cogs on the team,” as a great man once wrote.
Chipper has been working out with a new personal trainer in order to get his body ready, and hopefully injury free. He also has realized that he is getting older, so, he has begun to totally change his diet from one where he would drive away from a fast-food place with a bag full of grease three times a week.
I think we will see a healthier, lighter, better Chipper than the last few years. I think he will be back to having at least a 30 homer/100 RBI season like he regularly did before.
Now there’s Smoltz. At the end of the season and during the playoffs, his shoulder was bothering him quite a bit, which worried many Braves fans, including myself. There really hasn’t been any information on how he’s doing with his shoulder over the offseason, as far as I know. But, he has an excellent workout program with Andruw Jones which was really proven how great it is last year. After Smoltz and Andruw worked out over the offseason together, it propelled Smoltz to complete something another pitcher has never done before; go from starter to closer and sucessfully back to starter again. It also skyrocketed Andruw to a 51 homerun season. Now, will we see another 51 homer season out of Andruw again? Probably not. But, I’d be willing to bet that he’ll reach 40.
Hopefully this offseason has been a good one for Smoltz, and he will be the Smoltz of old again.
Then, you’ve got the Baby Braves, as has been already pointed out. Now they are the Sophmore class, with a season under their belts. That gives them more confidence, experience, etc.
It is very rare that a player’s Rookie year was their best and it went all downhill from there. I’m not saying that Frenchie will hit 70+ homers or anything like that, but look for an awesome season.
Now, there are the issues with the bullpen and left field. All I can say is, there will be some moves made before opening day which will equip this team to hunt for their 15th consecutive division title - not to mention a World Series trophy, of course.
How these moves will be made? I don’t have a clue. Just remember that John Schuerholz is the master of negotiation. Remember the deal he pulled off last year when he was able to aquire Tim Hudson?
Who knows. It may be the red, white and blue colored blood running through my veins, it may be the ‘Chop ringing in my ears, it may even be all those division banners cluttering up one wall in my room. All I know is that I am more confident in this team than I have been of any other since the start of the 2003 season. I’ve just got that feeling, one that I haven’t had in three years, that this team, the 2006 Atlanta Braves, will truly rock the house of Turner Field.
Scott,
My analysis was not on the team as a whole, but on the offseason moves. Thus the title, “offseason analysis.” I only brought up Chipper and Smoltz when Gordon mentioned the young players.
Oh, I will definitley tell you how it goes. It’s a fundraiser type thing for The Gathering Place (the what?). It is an awesome gathering (ha, ha) of youth from all over the state that come each week during the summer when it is going on at Epworth By The Sea on St. Simons Island, Georgia. There’s great music, and a speaker with an awesome message every time, not to mention the fact that you get to see youth from all over the state (especially the one’s you know but haven’t seen in quite a while).
Anyway, I guess he’ll be giving one of those “Give me your money” speeches, or maybe even a testimony, I have no clue. It may sound bad to go to a Christian event with this attitude, but I just wanna meet Smoltz. I’m also going to take my digital camera, not quite sure if that’s ok to bring in or not, but hey, it’s worth a shot.
Well, I was mostly responding to your comment, “…I don’t think this Braves team wins the division. ” Granted, you did say it’s too early to judge, but, I’m just telling you to have faith, the Braves will do just fine.
Smoltz has always been one of my all-time favorites. As far as the rest of the team goes, I think they still have a healthy balance of veteran studs and solid younger players that will be the recipe for another division title. I don’t really agree with you when you say that Edgar is an improvement over Furcal. He’ll provide more pop, but he’s a defensive downgrade and they’re going to have to bat someone like Marcus Giles in the leadoff spot. I think Franco’s big bat off the bench will be missed, too. All things considered, I think they have another division title in them as long as that bullpen somehow hold up. The Mets are awful scary on paper, but you can’t buy chemistry.
To be honest, I’m not really giving the Mets another look. Yes, they will most likley provide competition, sometimes real tough competiton. But, just look at where the Yankees have ended up after trying to buy wins with a $200 million payroll. They are terrible for the talent they have. That just proves that it’s not always a great idea to buy all the best players and throw them all together on one team. I have a feeling that is what is happening with the Mets.
Hence the line, “you can’t buy chemistry.”
Exactly, I was just adding emphasis, explaining a little more.
From the previous comments, it sounds as though John Smoltz would be a good candidate for pitching coach for an organization at some point after he retires. No doubt he knows pitching inside and out, as starter and closer.
Oh, I would love to see Smoltzie stay on the Braves after he retires as a pitching coach. But, history shows that you’ve got to be careful when you let a former player who had a great career coach.
Sometimes what happens is that the coach wants the players to do it all the way they did back in their playing days. They think they had it right and don’t realize that each player needs to figure out what is right for him. A great example is Ted Williams. He was a master at hitting when he was playing, but he was a terrible manager, because of the reason stated above. (Or, his players were just that bad).
There are exceptions to the rule however, as in Frank Robinson.
I think that Smoltz could also be an exception. This past year, he seemed to be a very good tutor to the Baby Braves pitchers.
Time will tell…
Interesting. A couple things:
* I read on FoxSports that, before the Braves got Renteria, the Indians wanted to swap Coco Crisp for Andy Marte. That would have been interesting.
* I’m really not concerned with losing Leo. I’ve heard the same stuff Gordon mentions. McDowell may help the young guys in the bullpen more than Leo did. And the reason so many pitchers (and players) have flourished with the Braves may turn out to be Bobby Cox after all - the confidence he instills in them, that kind of thing.
* The Braves will make a move during spring training - big or small - they always do.